dave snowden

 

dave snowden

intro’d to Dave via Maha’s share here:

“Ppl r trying to engineer solutions rather than evolve solutions even tho problems are not mechanical but organic”
https://t.co/2LIyBWCI7L

Original Tweet: https://twitter.com/Bali_Maha/status/677358440306577408

Dave’s talk from 2012

Combining Complexity Theory with Narrative Research

micro narratives.. overlayed on top of other data..

all about starting to break assumptions.. sci advances ..always.. mavericks… heretics… we don’t see things that we don’t expect to see… where we get unknown unknown

goal of mine last 20 yrs.. develop methods/tools that make people aware of things that they would otherwise find too easy to ignore… science behind that is key

adaptation – trait develops for a specific function

exaptation – generic trait gets used for something else unexpectedly by surprise

history of evolution mainly exaptive.. when something moves sideways…

creativity is s symptom of innovation… not a cause

apple brllliant at exaption: take things that were invented for something else and move them sideways into other areas.. medicine as well….

so how do we manage for exaption… not be able to survive stress … if we just try to adapt to what we know is going to happen.. we have to create pre conditions where exaption can happen naturally and quickly.. which means intro’ing inefficiency into the system..

when a measure becomes a target it ceases to be a measure.. 0 atrathern variation

10 min – outcome based – nobody can do anything unless they say in advance what success can be..

graeber min//max ness

if you focus on extrinsic… you destroy intrinsic

ways to measure success… w/o defining in advance what that success should be

a system is any network that has coherence.. an agency is anything that acts w/in system

14  min – stories are fractal.. home naran rather than homo sapien..

3 types of system: order (now outcomes); chaos (random – where you get wisdom of crow); complex/adaptive (co-evolve, patterns from co-evolution.. can’t be reversed)

17 min – don’t like the teen age ref..

for last 40-50 yrs we’ve been trying to create one approach.. but need diff management depending on which system you are in

20 min – rigid boundaries have a habit of becoming brittle

antifragility

key phrase of entire talk: manage the emergence of beneficial coherence w/in attractors w/in boundaries… focus on managing what can be managed.. … we manage for emergence

emergence

ie: roundabouts

23 min – real problem: engineer rather than evolve solutions.. and we’re dealing with an organic system rather than a mechanical

the place of your multiple belongings..

25 min – human beings don’t know what they know until they need to know it.. deeper expertise less likely they are to respond to consultants asking questions with real knowledge

only by multiple experiments.. can i understand.. evidence supports multiply hypothesis.. and there isn’t the right answer..

27 min – only upset.. those who wanted money to study for 3 yrs to come up w/solution.. we got it by engaging w/system.. found solutions that weren’t expected.. could only be discovered w/interaction w/it

most systems are complex.. and most of our means to solve is order

28 min – not causal but dispositional.. no foreseeable repeating relationships between cause and effect.. key

29 min – mapping counter terrorism… hallows in land..

holes in chips..

highly sensitive to small changes

hind sight doesn’t give you fore sight… in complex system

confusing simulation with prediction.. confusing causation with correlation

35 min – human complex system.. a new field of study.. because we have intentionality.. we do things that aren’t logical.. altruism ness

37 min – rather than send ethnographers… we distributed ethnography into citizens themselves… refugee camps… find person most respected.. captured that story.. over 80 000 stories.. real time fast feed back loops.. showed terrorism is going from uk to pakistan and not the other way around…  

sensemaker… not just telling stories..  need meaning.. and if you bound people from telling story about failure.. learning decreases.

not algorithmic interp of text.. it community needs to wake up to: no deep structures in language.. no grammaging.. (chomsky’s theory disproved 20 yrs ago) ..on analyzing meaning of text – human language can change in seconds.. who holds the power of interpretation…

43 min – indexing most important.. but only get it if you’re telling the story..

self-talk as data ness

citizen journalism

49 min – large mass human observation… stories secondary.. gives higher objectivity

52  min – micro feedback

53 min – think anew. act anew.

1:02 – on the power of numbers and stories combined.. you can persuade people with the combo

1:05 – if you can find stories of people like you.. you’re more likely to change..

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2013  – Lean, Agile & Scrum Conference – Making Sense of Complexity

role to be constructive irritant.. if you hear something w/familiar language you may associate it with something it isn’t… picking up language and applying to same thinking of last several years…

how to make sense of world… so we can act in it..  2 key concepts.. either extreme is bad..need both acting and thinking..

fine to use recipe book – if have all conditions in place.. if not.. you nee the chef… who would do it with hands w/o thinking… serving time is key for whole body of human knowledge..  also understands theory of taste… combo of theory and practice..  consciousness is a distributive function

6 min –

1\ exaptation (step change) – taking something designed for one purpose and using it for something else.. far more successful strategy for innovation than adaptation (slow change)…

so create exaptive moments.. ways in which software interacts w/human beings creating novel/unexpected uses…for existing capabilities..

architecture needs to be designed for flexibility

stop thinking about thinking about software as a manufacturing process. that’s linear.. it’s a service based provision.. evolutionary.. w/adaptive capacities…

9 min – taking a linear process and drawing it as a circle or doing it faster.. doesn’t make it non-linear. non-linearity requires parallelism and a completely different approach..

x-d glasses ness

2\ coherence – halfway house between we know it’s true.. and it’s anybody’s guess… (ie: spider web.. see pattern but no longer coherent)

what isn’t coherent… a whole new concept of proof..

if i have coherence i experiment.. i prototype… if not coherent.. neither

evolutionary theory is coherent (we know it’s not right), creation ism goes beyond any reasonable limits.. not coherent..

once pattern is formed.. can’t go backwards.. wherever you are is wherever you are.. doesn’t matter how rational/logical.. whatever you say will be filtered through last experience

12 min –

3\ complexity – usually presented as binary.. either order or chaos.. reality a 3rd.. complex daptive.. neither chaotic or ordered.. key thing.. you have to absorb it you can’t eliminate it .. complexity has to be accepted.. have to live w/the flow.. it’s about managing turbulence..

most human systems fit here.

system: any network with coherence…

meaning exists in the gaps between people not in the people themselves… – Alicia Juarrero

http://cognitive-edge.com/blog/context-cynefin/

Alicia – one of best thinkers in this field…

13 min – politics shift between: atomism (society is assemblies of individual interests) and commutariansim (individ’s only have meaning because of membership in society) – from  a cog sci pov commutarianism is winning.. relationships between more important than things themselves…

trying to change every person too hard.. if change systems w/in work.. interaction inbetween.. much faster

or both.. no?

2 needs. as the day.

big new thing… managing networks.. gaps between …

2\ agent: agents in human systems are rarely individuals.. can tell naivety if start to talk about agents as people. reality agents in systems are groups of people, myths, common stories.. myths have higher agency than individuals..

17 min –  no diff between us.. the diff is the stories we grew up in.. stories are fractal.. you can’t escape the weaving pattern of the stories of the groups of which you are in..

18 min – we’re narrative based creatures and we like to conform..

we.. or what we’ve seen us being..?

3 systems:

1\ order: if anyone says anything about human being is complex.. they don’t understand subject… we can put process in place to impose order.. uniquely humans have learned how to create it.. but involves high levels of constraint.. if too high.. things go underground.. the more b an org got the denser the networks became.. because had to know someone in order to make anything happen… networks were survival mechanism…. in this system.. people are disguising failure.. tension builds up.. massive change..

2\ chaotic: open.. context of randomness… no constraints.. every agent independent.. huge value.. wisdom of crowds ness..

to create a system where no one interacts w/anyone else.. is very difficult..

to say – i can manage chaos – shows stupidity – or intelligence w/deception involved…..difficult..have to keep things separate.. but if you can.. it’s useful

the goes into markets… et al..

?

so maybe simpler if we get rid of irrelevant s..

3\ complex adaptive.. where constraints and agents are co evolving…  can’t go backwards.. always dealing w/current..

ontology…fundamental nature of things: order, nature, chaos

epistemology .. way we know things.. way we act..

revolutionary concept.. in all management to date..

? revolutionary if still talking in management..?

29 min – what we manage is the emergence of beneficial coherence with inner tractors w/in boundaries.. 

takes far less resources than ordered approaches .. producing more beneficial outcomes.. but not outcomes you can know in advance..

complexity theory is not a subset of systems thinking…. ie: define an ideal end state and engineer to it… ie: define ideal person.. agile community needs to work with whatever comes in…

complexity focuses on identifying present… focus on things you can change.. and where there can you monitor.. because if you can’t monitor you won’t change… so then on what you can monitor what would leave beneficial

?

32 min – roundabout – never jams… has boundaries but allows emergent behavior… driver can choose based on traffic flow… also slowdown and pay attention

creating systems where people slow down and pay attention is critical..

a nother way

we need to stop designing applications and design architectures with objects in which applications emerge.. architecting to allow for emergence.. like roundabout

36 min – small things produce radically different effects.. you don’t get repeatability .. dispositional not causal…

hindsight doesn’t lead to foresight… ie: after it’s happened everyone can see what should have been done.. but we keep getting wrong… because system keeps changing..

lessons learning rather than lessons learned..

proximity is key.. one of the things you manage..

almost impossible for human being to lie backwards with consistency..

41 min- i can simulate but not predict..

converging to quickly on a solution.. dangerous

scaffolding provides support while being built.. but not needed for sustenance after built..

43 min – back of napkin ness. simplicity or not useful

so why hour long lectures..? and not changed yet..? serious. for (blank)’s sake

mechanism simple enough

44 min – big mistake.. saying  1 solution

chaos is a transitionary state.. if you’re in it you take action..

disorder is a state of not knowing which system you’re in

46 min – buy or search on web.. i’ll leave it to your conscious as what you choose.

?

then talking about papers winning awards.. and needing pedigree if you want people to buy in

?

47 min – loosen constraint for new ideas.. tighten to exploit

49 min – hold a meeting/open space mentality… open space is the enemy of innovation because it enforces consensus… need to increase conflict.. or don’t get diversity or proper testing… law of 2 feet enemy of innovation allows people to avoid confrontation where they need to do confrontation.

52 min – transparency enemy of innovation… because no one takes risks.. manager needs secrecy over spending or won’t take risks..

?

great ideas.. muffled by assumption of market ness..?

53 min – most project start at group think… as soon as enough are in.. you go… users don’t know what they want.. you don’t rep of users.. you want narrative of users while in it..

55 min – working multiple parallel experiments.. and micro narrative…

so.. a people experiment

56 min – method on deciding experiments:

if agreed it’s coherent get to experiment.. not required to agree it’s right…. need to know what will do if fail.. needs to be short term.. tangible..

obliquity – solve problems by solving related problems…

some need to be naive… bring in someone w/deep knowledge.. but naive about the problem.. to look at is sideways..

need contradiction… run 3-7 experiments..

so he’s telling all these forms .. you can download from his site.. not back of napkin.. no?

1:01 – real time feedback again..

self talk as data again

1:06 – never eliminate outliers…

realize dealing w/humans not machines… human brain not like a computer.. no singularity..

watch out for those putting new language on same old things…

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find/follow Dave:

link twitter

Founder and Chief Scientific Officer, Cognitive Edge

http://cognitive-edge.com/

wikipedia small

David John Snowden (born 1 April 1954) is a Welsh academic, consultant and researcher in the field ofknowledge management. He is the founder and chief scientific officer of Cognitive Edge, a consulting company and research network focusing on complexity theory in sensemaking.

Snowden is an Honorary Professor in the School of Psychology at Bangor University and holds an MBA fromMiddlesex University, and a BA in Philosophy from Lancaster University.[3] He started his working career with Data Sciences Ltd (formerly Thorn EMI software), acquired by IBM in 1996. He was the Director of IBM’s Institute for Knowledge Management, and the founder of the Cynefin Center for Organizational Complexity. Snowden developed the Cynefin framework, a practical application of complexity theory to management science.

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systemic ness

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from Jordan Greenhall [https://medium.com/deep-code/understanding-the-blue-church-e4781b2bd9b5]:

2\ Complex systems that include human beings are different. Unlike atmospheres and nitrogen cycles, people can forecast, strategize and adapt hyper-rapidly to our environment. Dave Snowden calls this anthro-complexity. We have to innovate an entirely new approach to governance that is adequate to the challenging set of problems posed by anthro-complexity. **We really don’t know how to do this.

link to what’s in a name:
http://cognitive-edge.com/blog/whats-in-a-name/

I now talk about the 3Is of human complex systems: intelligence, identity and intention. Part of that is to make the point that human systems are different, and that *symbolic language is a critical aspect off that difference which links back into the narrative and other work that is so much a part of what we do.

or is it limiting us.. are we ready to let go of that linear ness..? i think yes

So what to call it? Well over the years I have used two names: social complexity and more recently cognitive complexity. ..Social complexity now has more specific meaning in academic circles and I don’t want to be confined by that. Cognitive complexity has the human aspect in it, but again it is a little limiting. I’ve also used naturalising sense-making and still do. ..More recently I have been thinking about anthro-complexity (or anthrocomplexity) as being the most accurate label, and possibly the least confining.

But for the overall field or approach there needs to be a name, and the name itself will impart meaning.

thinking more.. let go to idio jargon

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garden of eden – the transition – complex dynamics – july 2017

[https://www.facebook.com/TheGardenofEdenEvents/videos/1295895083856801/]

jordan – from dave snowden 10 yrs ago (1\ simple  2\ complicated  3\ complex  4\ chaos)
dave

..simple enough for kid to get  

indeed.. simple enough ness.. a nother way book2 convos as the day graphic

becoming experts and managing complicated systems.. that no single person could.. frames what we do.. what we are good at doing
complicated vs complex.. complicated: although phase space very large it doesn’t change.. in complex system.. things do change.. all the stuff we really care about are complex..
and a big part of the game we’ve been playing last 15000 yrs.. has been trying to use complicated stuff to manage complex stuff.. impossible..
in a complex system.. things that are causation.. are almost impossible to figure out.. can’t make prediction with precision
one of big problems.. when you have a complicated system.. trying to manage the complex system.. as the complex system changes.. the complicated system has to become more complicated..
ie: district with 500 policies.. and too much ness.. et al
till it becomes so complicated you can’t manage it.. till it does something dave snowden calls: takes a journey thru chaos..
everyday.. as the day..
and chaos is the 4th kind of system.. and we don’t like chaos.. but how it works.. have to break down and go thru chaos to come back into authentic complexity
perhaps authentic complexity is (seeming) chaos.. perhaps not believing/embracing this.. is why we keep spinning our wheels.. (ie: why we haven’t yet gotten to equity).. we can’t let go enough to become ongoingly antifragile..
perhaps our job right now is twofold:
1\ figure out how to position ourselves so that we can in fact endure the chaos.. possibly even be antifragile to the chaos and use the chaos to build something very positive..
indeed.. mech to facil the chaos of 7 bn curious/awake people.. to build/model/be/become.. eudaimoniative surplus
2\ do what we can now to envision what a future looks like that embraces complexity authentically..
try this: a nother way
daniel: more complicated blueprints are not going to get us there.. our motivational tool kit has to change.. as long as homeless ness is ok.. and killing is ok.. is it fair to call that civilization yet.. maybe not aspired to it yet..  maybe birth of civilization is what is on the other side if we navigate towards that..
graeber model law
daniel

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