daniel on metacrisis
The Metacrisis with Daniel Schmachtenberger | Part 1 | Green Pill #26 – first of 3 part series (2 – criteria for solving.. 3 – materials.. web3, doas, bitcoin, et al to solve coord failures.. global coord substrate)
daniel schmachtenberger and kevin @owocki
learn more on this greenpill pod episode with @danielschmach
Original Tweet: https://twitter.com/owocki/status/1547594718392885248
notes/quotes from 90 min video:
kevin: on daniel discussing systemic risks to humanity.. beyond just climate change.. what he calls the metacrisis.. we’re looking for the systemic game theoretic underpinnings behind the metacrisis and all the coord failures worldwide
from google: Game theory is the study of mathematical models of strategic interactions among rational agents.
yeah.. not deep enough if we think it’s about math models and strategies and rational agents.. that focus/assumption would be a big part of why we haven’t yet gotten to global equity (everyone getting a go everyday)
we need to let go of any form of m\a\p.. that’s the basis of a legit diff coord of us..
1 min – k: our ability to solve metacrisis by creating a 3rd attractor
5 min – d: what are the coordination needs of the world.. what are the governance needs of the world.. this is what we want to show the metacrisis as a frame for
6 min – d: episode 1 – what has to happen by when.. to inform future episodes
7 min – d: what is the metacrisis.. ie: climate crisis is.. about planetary boundaries.. et al.. not just 100 of diff.. but underlying problem
taleb center of problem law – if we saw that.. the underlying problem.. we wouldn’t be spending our time talking about any form of m\a\p (ie: daniel 9-11 min et al).. because we now can and need a legit global leap/re\set
11 min – d: coord failures are underneath all of these
because we don’t know what essence to coord around.. because most people are other people (aka: whales).. we need (first) a means to undo our hierarchical listening so that we can org around legit needs
12 min – d: coord failure.. a multi polar trap.. anybody starts over fishing.. then nobody has a reason to not overfish.. if they’re going ot build weapons.. you better build them faster.. so get this arms race.. tragedy of commons.. first movers advantage..
otherwise will ongoingly perpetuate myth of tragedy and lord
13 min – d: the metacrisis has to solve multi polar traps categorically .. not this particular one or that particular one.. so metacrisis screen is quite useful because we say.. trying to solve each one of these issues.. every time a new tech.. a new arms race happens.. there’s no way we can just keep protecting each one in a triage way.. we have to have to get human coord to be fundamentally better ..
imagine if we just focused on listening to the itch-in-8b-souls.. first thing.. everyday.. and used that data to augment our interconnectedness.. we might just get to a more antifragile, healthy, thriving world.. the ecosystem we keep longing for..
d: and this means we have to address perverse incentives.. any problem you’re incentivizing.. you’re going to have a hard time solving
even deeper.. if legit get rid of incentives (all the red flags).. life won’t be about solving problems..
14 min – k: so to recap.. meta crisis is a bunch of diff crises.. so your approach is that we have to solve all these problems.. systemic generator functions
16 min – d: 3rd attractor as a way out.. right now 2 attractors (increasing catastrophes and authoritarian dystopias).. nobody feels like they can solve.. result of coord failures.. almost every dollar has externalities.. so very deep
19 min – d: democratization .. then talks of weapons et al.. how to prevent decentralized catastrophe weapons.. need surveillance state.. et al.. now to make surveillance state.. market.. et al.. that doesn’t crisis .. need international agreement/enforcement.. but don’t want and do want global govt.. so this is where the 2 attractors are catastrophes and dystopias
dang man.. not deep enough.. wack a mole
22 min – d: so.. how do we make a world that isn’t catastrophic or dystopic.. we don’t want the catastrophe or dystopia models..
23 min – d: suggested video to watch and book to read on understanding multi polar traps
24 min – d: (describes opp of ue)
25 min – d: we solve tragedy of commons w law/force.. but w/o monopoly of violence and rule of law.. can’t solve that thing..
? – we have no idea..
27 min – d: there’s a lot of small scale where ostroms org works.. but when you get large scale.. lot of power invested.. it gets much trickier
actually only works if it’s all.. ginorm/small large scale.. otherwise.. all of us wacking a mole
28 min – d: anyone who’s thought about externalities moves slower and just loses
29 min – d: incentives are to not take risks
31 min – k: on coord problem becoming to popular that helped web3 and dao et al
32 min – d: say somebody grew up with goodness.. then become suckers.. then to cynicism.. then post cynical.. on how do virtues get enacted.. knowing people don’t share them.. so how can i be aware of people who are bad actors and work with people who are good actors.. and help there to be more incentive for people to become good actors rather than bad actors
oh my.. same song man.. has to be all of us.. you’re just killing us softly with the same song
magine if we just focused on listening to the itch-in-8b-souls.. first thing.. everyday.. and used that data to augment our interconnectedness.. we might just get to a more antifragile, healthy, thriving world.. the ecosystem we keep longing for..
34 min – d: on the transition from this world to that world (on bad actors tripping it up).. i have to be game theoretically aware..
38 min – d: w each catastrophe comes control structures.. each catastrophe motivates us enough to want a dystopia
42 min – d: you can solve for one catastrophe and create others.. or solve for all and create dystopia.. how to you make sure can’t be captured by corruption
45 min – convos i just had w nate haggins.. highlights (blahblahblah)
ugh .. we need to let go.. of any form of m\a\p
i hear you.. can you hear me.. can you hear you?
that’s the depth of the metacrisis
need: means to undo our hierarchical listening
ie: tech as it could be
46 min – d: (back and forthing on maths and graphs and et al).. if you make energy its real cost.. then energy goes up to million dollars a .. it makes sense why it’s so hard
not going meta enough guys.. you’re distracting yourselves all kinds of forms of m\a\p
48 min – d: all are part of incentive patterns.. few things we have to address.. they do require human motives/values/culture.. so there’s tech, social, cultural we have to do.. impossible at the level of all the symptoms but possible at the level of the drivers..
huge.. but we haven’t yet listened deep enough for the legit drivers.. what we need most/first.. a means to undo our hierarchical listening
51 min – k: asking where your hope comes from
52 min – d: 5 ways tech that destroys stuff could be rebuilt to be a 3rd detractor.. in the design of tech and reg about it.. then i’ll go into nature.. then hope it self
need: tech as it could be
54 min – d: gives ie’s: one images entire earth everyday.. can show what’s in detail in military bases.. where fishing boats are.. et al.. forced global transparency.. bit deal.. no deniability on who did ie: the illegal fishing.. that helps multi polar traps.. blockchain very oriented to forced transparency
what we need: imagine if we ness
(skipped to) 62 min – d: can the kid have einstein et al all as tutors.. ca talk w real people about what is diff about what einstein said and so and so said.. what is intelligence and anti intelligence.. a level of human tutoring plus ai tutoring.. most of the great polymaths have had this.. if everybody had that education.. with an econ system to support you
oi.. oi .. oi .. socrates supposed to law
(skipped to) 80 min – my optimism says i’m determined to find a solution.. my pessimism.. it won’t work.. so.. let me ask all my smart friends what’s wrong with it.. then when they give me what’s wrong with it.. i’m see them as new constraints and i try again.. getting to adequate enough to move the thing forward..