predict\able

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adding page while reading Lisa Margonelli @LisaMargonelli’s underbug

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what makes stigmergy spectacular as a concept is that is doesn’t just describe how termites build; it also makes it *possible to predict what will be built..t

*how so..? i don’t see stigmergy as predictable

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i asked him about superorganisms.. is the mound a body?.. t

i’m thinking only if we don’t define/predict/mechanize the mound.. just like the city.. once we plan/strategize it.. it’s no longer alive.. so can no longer be organism as fractal

he said he thought the link between the organization of bodies and of termite mounds was homeostasis: cells build bones and termites build mounds that create an environ suitable for their survival. ‘there are tough questions a scientist has to confront. why do we say the termite is alive but not the mound?.. the mound does things the termite can’t do.. you need to think about the organism extending outside itself thru the mound. *it’s impossible to be alive w/o changing the environ you live in’..t

and i’d say… *it’s impossible to be alive and predictable..

et al

and while reading this from Steven Johnson:

Aditya Bapat (@adityasbapat) tweeted at 7:52 AM on Tue, Nov 20, 2018:
This has to be the best article I have read this year. It’s on the brain, it’s capacity to wander, and the implication of machines that do it for us and better than us. https://t.co/macUOAecPf
(https://twitter.com/adityasbapat/status/1064894326839353345?s=03)

“Apparently, when the brain/mind thinks in a free and unencumbered fashion,” she wrote, “it uses its most human and complex parts.”

In 2001, Randy Buckner’s adviser at Washington University, Marcus Raichle, coined a new term for the phenomenon: the “default-mode network,” or just “the default network.” The phrase stuck. Today, Google Scholar lists thousands of academic studies that have investigated the default network. “It looks to me like this is the most important discovery of cognitive neuroscience,” says the University of Pennsylvania psychologist Martin Seligman. The seemingly trivial activity of mind-wandering is now believed to play a central role in the brain’s “deep learning,” the mind’s sifting through past experiences, imagining future prospects and assessing them with emotional judgments: that flash of shame or pride or anxiety that each scenario elicits.

“What best distinguishes our species,” Seligman wrote in a Times Op-Ed with John Tierney, “is an ability that scientists are just beginning to appreciate: We contemplate the future.” He went on: “A more apt name for our species would be Homo prospectus, because we thrive by considering our prospects. The power of prospection is what makes us wise.”

? – i don’t know

If the Homo prospectus theory is correct, those limited time-traveling skills explain an important piece of the technological gap that separates humans from all other species on the planet. It’s a lot easier to invent a new tool if you can imagine a future where that tool might be useful. What gave flight to the human mind and all its inventiveness may not have been the usual culprits of our opposable thumbs or our gift for language. It may, instead, have been freeing our minds from the tyranny of the present.

ugh.. i don’t think that’s a good thing

this poem by Nic Askew resonates w my ‘ugh’

DREAMS OF NO INTEREST
‘I have absolutely no interest
in the dreams you so
earnestly chase,’
spoke his soul.‘When you were a boy
you had no time
for such dreams.The electricity of the world
under your feet was enough.’

Agriculture itself would have been unimaginable without a working model of the future: predicting seasonal changes, visualizing the long-term improvements possible from domesticating crops.

yeah.. i don’t see agri as benefitting an undisturbed ecosystem

Banking and credit systems require minds capable of sacrificing present-tense value for the possibility of greater gains in the future. For vaccines to work, we needed patients willing to introduce a potential pathogen into their bodies for a lifetime of protection against disease.

wow.. i see those of symptoms of disturbing an undisturbed ecosystem.. not benefits

We are born with a singular gift for imagining the future, but we have been enhancing those gifts since the dawn of civilization. Today, new enhancements are on the horizon, in the form of machine-learning algorithms that already outperform humans at certain kinds of forecasts. As A.I. stands poised to augment our *most essential human talent, we are faced with a curious question: How will the future be different if we get much better at **predicting it?

*not

i see **predict\able ness as a disturbance/symptom of an undisturbed ecosystem

so what’s the diff between imagining (because i see that as good) and predicting..? (i asked myself).. i’m thinking it’s the assumption of particulars (see below ‘a specified thing) that comes w predicting..

predict

ie: a nother way.. is imagining an undisturbed ecosystem.. but key to it is that the particulars emerge.. they have to be emergent.. or it’s not an alive system.. not organism as fractal

We have long heard promises of “smart drugs” on the horizon that will enhance our memory, but if the Homo prospectus argument is correct, we should probably be looking for breakthroughs that will enhance our predictive powers as well.

disturbance/symptom of an undisturbed ecosystem

Accurate weather forecasting is merely one early triumph of software-based time travel: algorithms that allow us to peer into the future in ways that were impossible just a few decades ago, what a new book by a trio of University of Toronto economists calls “prediction machines.” In machine-learning systems, algorithms can be trained to generate remarkably accurate predictions of future events by combing through vast repositories of data from past events. An algorithm might be trained to predict future mortgage defaults by analyzing thousands of home purchases and the financial profiles of the buyers, testing its hypotheses by tracking which of those buyers ultimately defaulted.

all i can think of now is..we’re not being careful and we are missing it..

ie mufleh humanity lawwe have seen advances in every aspect of our lives except our humanity – Luma Mufleh

ginorm small zoom dance

his ie’s are so manufactured: getting a job; buying a house; market; school;..

Whether you find the idea of augmenting the default network thrilling or terrifying, one thing should be clear: These tools are headed our way. In the coming decade, many of us will draw on the forecasts of machine learning to help us muddle through all kinds of life decisions: career changes, financial planning, hiring choices. These enhancements could well turn out to be the next leap forward in the evolution of Homo prospectus, allowing us to see into the future with more acuity — and with a more nuanced sense of probability — than we can do on our own.

termite\ing us.. getting us to sync up to an algo/repetition – Lisa Margonelli

The Homo prospectus theory suggests that, if anything, we need to carve out time in our schedule — and perhaps even in our schools — to let minds drift.

yeah.. but not for the purpose of predicting.. for the purpose of being alive.. what we need most.. the energy of 7bn alive people

 “The brain’s default-mode network appears to preserve the capacity for plasticity into adulthood,” he told me.

antifragile.. entropy.. all that.. makes/keeps us alive.. but specific predicting.. killer

begs we let go and free art ists (from bot ism).. in the city.. as the day..

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John Hagel (@jhagel) tweeted at 7:09 AM – 21 Nov 2018 :
Exploring some of the early investigators of chaos theory – embarking on a quest to extract ordered structures from a sea of ​​chaos. Surprised it does not mention the Santa Fe Institute where much of this work is done today https://t.co/5fFPSmILdD(http://twitter.com/jhagel/status/1065245789809713154?s=17)

Poincaré identified the unpredictability of the system and wrote: “It may happen that small differences in the initial conditions produce very great ones in the final phenomena. A small error in the former will produce an enormous error in the latter. Prediction becomes impossible.”

henri on predict\ability

Chaos theory became the perfect mathematical tool to extract ordered structures from a sea of ​​chaos. It is based on two main ideas: 1) even complex systems contain an underlying order, and 2) in these systems, small differences in initial conditions (e.g. small temperature variations) produce very divergent results, which means that, in general, the prediction of their long-term behaviour is impossible (mathematically, we say that the system has a strong dependence on the initial conditions).

chaos

This happens even though the behaviour of these phenomena is completely determined by their initial conditions, without involving any type of random elements. In other words, the deterministic nature of these systems does not make them predictable, although, at the very least, thanks to chaos theory it is possible to analyse their unpredictability from a strategic point of view.

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Matt Ballantine (@ballantine70) tweeted at 2:59 PM on Thu, Nov 22, 2018:
Blimey. We’re only 13 months away from the point at which a huge bucket load of corporate “2020 Visions” will expire as people don’t even realise they haven’t been realised…
(https://twitter.com/ballantine70/status/1065726477558272001?s=03)

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in Hannah Arendt‘s on violence

4

since the end of human action, as distinct from the end products of fabrication, can never be reliably predicted, the means used to achieve political goals are more often than not of greater relevance to the future world than the intended goals..

7

predictions of the future are never anything but projection of present automatic processes and procedures that is, of occurrences that are likely to come to pass if men do not act and if nothing unexpected happens; ..

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