50 yr cycle
these moments of extreme crisis and survival were not evidence of chaos but of order. kondratieff was the first person to show the existence of long waves in econ history
though it was later popularized as ‘wave-theory’.. kondratieff’s most valuable insight was to understand why the global econ goes thru sudden change.. why capitalism hits structural crisis, and how it morphs and mutates in response.. he used the term long cycle rather than wave because cycles in scientific thought create a sub language that is highly useful: we speak of phases, states and their sudden alternation
i will argue that it is essentially right, but that the present crisis reps a disruption of the pattern – and that signals this si something bigger than the end of a 50 yr cycle.
the man himself was supremely cautious about the implication of his theory. he never claimed he could predict events – though he did predict the depression of the 1930s ten yrs before it happened..
but stalin’s police had, in a way, understood more about k’s theory than he did himself.. they understood that if pursued to conclusion – it would bring marxism face to face with a dangerous proposition: that there is no ‘final’ crisis of capitalism. there can be chaos, panic and revolution but, on basis if k’s evidence, capitalism’s tendency is not to collapse, but rather to mutate.
only a few diehards, mainly investors, remained obsessed w k. in 1980s wall street analysts turned his careful provisional findings into a bunch of crude, predictive mumbo-jumbo. in place of his complex data, they drew simple lines, showing a wave with a stylized shape: a surge, a plateau, a crisis and a collapse. they called it the k-wave
lines of best fit ness
in 2008, what the investors were waiting for (they predicted 1990 – *50 yrs from 40) finally happened..
now people in the mainstream are once again interested in long cycles. as it *dawned on them that the lehman crisis was systemic, analysts began to look for patterns produced by the interplay of tech innovation and growth
yeah.. see.. *these dawnings of assumed systemic ness.. that get a restart every 50 yrs (because of generational brainwashing capabilities) or so.. coupled with the ability to mathematically chart whatever wave you prefer/need in order to perpetuate this broken loop of not-us ness (aka: made up money ness et al).. are keeping us intoxicated..
but to use k’s insight properly we have to understand what he really said..his original research, in the 1920s was based on data fro five advance economies between 1790 and 1920. .. using most advance statistical techniques of his time.. he established a trend line out of the raw data.. he divided the data against populations size and smoothed it out suing a nine yr moving average to filter out random fluctuation and short cycles..
dang.. how silly are we.. we base our lives on these lines of best fit that we have manufactured.. then we base our theories of change on getting to the root (rather to the first one they know of who fit a line).. missing the real root.. and so missing us.. missing every opp to disengage the broken loop.
dang.. let’s try something diff.. let’s try something w/o wasting our time mathematizing/measuring/proving it.. when deep down we could know.. we’ve never really proved anything.. dang.. our *research is eating us alive
*noun: the systematic investigation into and study of materials and sources in order to establish facts and reach new conclusions.. verb: investigate systematically.
unlike today’s wall street analysts, k not ultimately interest in the shapes of the waves themselves. he saw the sine waves.. as evidence of something deeper happening in reality: a succession of alternating ‘phases’ which, for our purposes, are the most useful tools to understand the 50 yr cycles’
imagine if instead.. we ran thru these cycles (supposed 50 yrs) every day.. ie: equity.. everyone getting a go everyday.. a fresh start.. to remind themselves to think .. wake up.. would this not be rapid prototyping to slow.. and thus .. back to us..? let’s try that.. via 2 convos .. as the day..[aka: not part\ial.. for (blank)’s sake…]
ie’s of 50 yrs being more from a person’s life span..
paul – in 50s.. is this when we wake up.. again.. from 5 yr old self..filled w curiosity et al
kozol comment to nikhil
Original Tweet: https://twitter.com/nikhilgoya_l/status/889551470395351042
fueled an old fire from almost 50 yrs ago..