from article (aeon august 2020): uncertain times [https://aeon.co/essays/complex-systems-science-allows-us-to-see-new-paths-forward]
intro’d via these tweets:
The pandemic is an unprecedented opportunity – seeing human society as a complex system opens a better future for us all https://t.co/o0lgS91XDb
Original Tweet: https://twitter.com/aeonmag/status/1297805924623626240
to (virus) leap et al
“Uncertainty is the only certainty there is. And knowing how to live with insecurity is the only security.”
“Instead of prioritising outcomes… we might… design processes that foster adaptability and robustness…” https://t.co/9VWkqK9Xts
Original Tweet: https://twitter.com/technoshaman/status/1297829313895641088
For the first time in that long history, humans are capable of coordinating on a global scale, using fine-grained data on individual behaviour, to design robust and adaptable social systems..t
yeah.. not that data.. not about behavior.. (ie: when look at behavior.. really just spinning our wheels with data from whales in sea world)
In complex systems, the last thing that happened is almost never informative about what’s coming next. . t
yeah.. let’s design for that..
we have a lot of letting go to do to design for that
living in a complex system requires us to embrace and even harness uncertainty. Instead of attempting to narrowly forecast and control outcomes, we need to design systems that are robust and adaptable enough to weather a wide range of possible futures..t
ie: cure ios city
This kind of coupling between local behaviour and society-wide information is appealing because it seems to simplify decision-making for busy individuals. Yet we know from many years of work on swarming and synchronicity – think of the flashing fireflies – that the dynamics of coupled systems can be surprising.
let’s try curiosity over decision making
an inability to predict the future doesn’t preclude the possibility of security and quality of life. Nature, after all, is full of collective, coupled systems with the same properties of nonlinearity and nonstationarity. We should therefore look to the way biological systems cope, adapt and even thrive under such conditions
taleb antifragile law et al
all ie’s are based on assumptive ways to live/succeed (w/ money, health, decision-making systems in place)
Fiascos happen when we use crude data to make qualitative decisions..t
John Allen Paulos remarked about complex systems: ‘Uncertainty is the only certainty there is. And knowing how to live with insecurity is the only security.’
the human heart is thought to confer robustness to perturbations at a wide range of scales by beating to a rhythm that is neither chaotic nor periodic but has a fractal structure. Robust design, in contrast to typical approaches in engineering, focuses on discovering mechanisms that maintain functionality under changing or uncertain environments.
One of the many challenges in designing systems that flourish under uncertainty is how to improve the quality of information available in the system..t
quality and kind.. we need to focus on diff data.. ie: self-talk as data
For emergent engineering to succeed, we need to develop a better understanding of what makes a group intelligent..t
for emergence to happen.. we need to let go of intellect ness
ai humanity needs: augmenting interconnectedness
Rather than attempt to precisely predict the future, we have tried to make the case for designing systems that favour robustness and adaptability – systems that can be creative and responsive when faced with an array of possible scenarios.
ie: cure ios city