‘In 1976 I discovered Ebola, now I fear an unimaginable tragedy’

Peter Piot was a researcher at a lab in Antwerp when a pilot brought him a blood sample from a Belgian nun who had fallen mysteriously ill in Zaire


Humans are actually just an accidental host for the virus, and not a good one. From the perspective of a virus, it isn’t desirable for its host, within which the pathogen hopes to multiply, to die so quickly. It would be much better for the virus to allow us to stay alive longer.

Patients could probably be treated most quickly with blood serum from Ebola survivors, even if that would likely be extremely difficult given the chaotic local conditions. We need to find out now if these methods, or if experimental drugs like ZMapp, really help. But we should definitely not rely entirely on new treatments. For most people, they will come too late in this epidemic. But if they help, they should be made available for the next outbreak

Testing of two vaccines is also beginning. It will take a while, of course, but could it be that only a vaccine can stop the epidemic?

I hope that’s not the case.

– – – – – –

Out of control

How the world’s health organizations failed to stop the Ebola disaster


“We cannot wait for those high-level meetings to convene and discuss over cocktails and petits fours what they’re going to do,” exclaimed Joanne Liu, international head of Doctors Without Borders, when she heard about another U.N. initiative.

West Africa was ill-equipped for an Ebola disaster because civil war and chronic poverty had undermined local health systems and there were few doctors and nurses.

A virus is not really alive, in the formal sense of the word, as it cannot do anything outside of a host. Ebola is a filovirus, and looks like a piece of spaghetti. The protein envelope surrounds a strand of RNA, the simpler cousin of DNA. You could say it is pure information with instructions for replication.

“People were sitting in places and arguing instead of acting,” Brown said. “And gradually Ebola was creeping into society.”

makes me think of cure violence, et al, and Ed, … and how we need to just take a break from the blind/busy.. and renew/recheck ourselves. free up everyone to take care.

In late July, with the epidemic roaring, Liu, the head of Doctors Without Borders (known internationally by its French name, Médecins Sans Frontières), requested a meeting with WHO Director-General Margaret Chan at the WHO’s Geneva headquarters.

Chan, an expert on the SARS virus and avian influenza, has led the WHO since November 2006. Her organization has experienced budget cuts and shifting priorities in recent years. The WHO is responsible for coordinating global health emergencies, but the legislative body that oversees it has repeatedly voted to emphasize noncommunicable diseases such as heart disease and cancer rather than infectious diseases.

Liu, a French Canadian, is a pediatric emergency room doctor by training, and for much of the past two decades has worked for Doctors Without Borders in the most war-ravaged, disaster-stricken places on Earth.

“They were quickly drowning,” she said.

‘We have been unable to control the spread’

schooling the world is a zoom out version (because we’re missing it by line of best fit ness) of what we’re doing in Ed.

ebola is a zoom out version (because we’re missing it by line of best fit ness) of what we’re doing with oppression/violence et al.


World Bank President Jim Yong Kim was beyond frustrated. Kim, a doctor and an expert on infectious diseases, called an emergency meeting for Sept. 3 that would include major decision-makers from the government and the private sector.

Frieden showed up and had a dire warning: The response was like “using a pea shooter against a raging elephant.”

Kim warned, “The future of the continent is on the line.”

Brantly urged the president not to delay in delivering help to West Africa. The commitments that Obama was about to announce were great, but only if they arrived immediately, he said.

” ‘I’m pushing,’ ” Brantly recalled Obama saying. ” ‘I’m pushing as much as I can to make this happen.’ “

how does this happen..? our delays from too much ness. when we have the means.

i need you to wake up




Frieden of the CDC said this Ebola epidemic had served as a test.

“We, the world, failed that test,” he said.

What happens next in the epidemic will be determined in part by mathematics. As of Friday, the WHO had reported 7,470 confirmed or likely cases, and 3,431 deaths in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia. Currently, each infected person is infecting about two more. To slow the spread of the disease and eventually stop it, officials must somehow reverse the math. Only when each Ebola patient infects, on average, fewer than one person will the outbreak begin to fade.

The people in charge of stopping the Ebola epidemic will have to do something that they have not been able to accomplish: They must be even more aggressive, more ruthless and more persistent than the virus – a mindless and implacable force carrying out its own genetic instructions.


oct 6

Please take a moment to read “#Ebola mitigation using epidemic triage centers” docs.google.com/document/d/1ud… and suggest edits before I send out?

oct 10



gosh i wish i was smarter


the perfect is the enemy of the good:


until enough high-quality treatment units are built, community treatment centers can help to reduce the R0 value for the population as a whole.

*Strictly speaking, R0 is defined for a population in which everyone is susceptible to infection except one infectious person known as the “index case.”  When people who survive the epidemic become immune, as we hope is happening now in West Africa, the immune people mix with the susceptible population, so that each infected person has less chance to contact and infect a susceptible person.  As this occurs, the effective reproductive rate, Re, drops below R0 and then below 1.0, eventually stabilizing the epidemic.  This natural brake on the epidemic might have happened already in geographically isolated villages in Africa, but will take longer and be more difficult in urban centers.


on the ignoring the average joe .. ness..

in ignorance yes.. so dang.. but how i feel about the world epidemic.. and things like this..


(just adding it because just swam into vision in my tweet stream – there are many others)

and the whole Jack thing – no one listening – when he had some valuable info..

how to have systems where we listen better.. w/o initial  judgment/bias/fog..


with what you have:



dispels myths



With the multiplicative ⨂ (#Ebola) strategy should focus on source rather than arrival. Bureaucrats can’t grasp ⨂.


more on exponentiation ness



how nigeria stopped ebola..



via John Green – what is terrifying:

none of us if one of us ness


eyewitness to hell:



Pardi Sabeti